Monthly Market Commentary: Stocks flatline on economic and AI worries.
Economic Backdrop
Global equities, as measured by the MSCI ACWI Index, were down slightly in November 2025. Investors’ concerns about signs of slowing global economic growth and persistent inflation, as well as stretched valuations in the technology sector, particularly for artificial intelligence (AI)-related companies, offset optimism regarding relatively strong corporate earnings. Developed markets outperformed emerging markets for the month.
Europe was the strongest-performing region among the developed markets in November, bolstered by strength in Ireland, Belgium, and Switzerland. In contrast, the underperformance of both the Asia-Pacific ex Japan and Pacific regions resulted from a market downturn in Australia. The Far East region also lagged due to weakness in Japan. Latin America led the emerging markets in November due primarily to upturns in Chile, Brazil, and Colombia. Additionally, Europe benefited from strength in Hungary and Greece. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries were the most notable laggards for the month, attributable mainly to market slumps in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Far East also recorded a negative return for the month due to declines in Korea and Taiwan.1
Global fixed-income assets, as represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, edged up 0.2% (in U.S. dollars) in November. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) led the U.S. fixed-income market, followed by U.S. Treasurys, high-yield bonds, and investment-grade corporate bonds. Treasury yields moved lower across the yield curve. Yields on 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year Treasury notes declined by corresponding margins of 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.12%, and 0.09%, ending the month at 3.47%, 3.49%, 3.59%, and 4.02%, respectively. The 10-year to 3-month yield curve narrowed by 8 basis points (0.08%) to +0.14% as of the November 28, the final trading day of the month.2
Global commodity prices, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, climbed 3.2% in November. The spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil fell 4.0% and 2.8%, respectively, over the month due to a proposed peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could increase exports from Russia, as well as softer demand. The 6.5% rise in the gold price in November resulted from increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cut at its December meeting, along with sticky inflation and U.S. dollar weakness. (The gold price typically moves inversely to the U.S. dollar.) The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas price surged 11.0% during the month, benefiting from an anticipated increase in demand due to colder weather in the Midwestern and Eastern regions of the U.S., as well as a significant rise in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The 0.8% upturn in the wheat price in November was attributable to the ongoing disruption of Black Sea wheat exports caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, along with weather-related issues, including heavy rain in China, and dry conditions in Southeast Europe, Australia, and the U.S.
On November 12, President Donald Trump signed a spending package to reopen the federal government after a 43-day shutdown—the longest in U.S. history—after the House of Representatives and Senate passed the legislation by votes of 222-209 and 60-40, respectively. The political dispute centered on the demand of the Democrats, who are the minority party in both houses of Congress, for an extension of the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance subsidies enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, and to restore the cuts to the Medicaid program mandated in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Trump signed into law in July.
The agreement funds the government through January 30, 2026; provides full funding through the end of the fiscal year on September 30 for the Department of Agriculture, the legislative branch, and military construction; and guarantees the rehiring of furloughed workers and back pay for all federal employees. Furthermore, though the bill does not extend the ACA subsidies, the Senate pledged to hold a vote on the issue by mid-December.
There was an unexpected development regarding U.S. trade policy mid-month. The Trump administration reversed several tariffs that were previously imposed on food imports in an effort to cut costs for both consumers and businesses, and ease inflationary pressures in the food sector. The lower tariffs, which were applied retroactively to November 13, include beef, coffee, and more than 100 agricultural and food products. The lower levies apply to imports from all countries—not just those with trade deals. Several U.S.-based businesses have challenged the legality of the tariffs to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could issue a decision on the matter some time in December.
On the geopolitical front, in late November, the Trump administration announced a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022. The plan would provide limited security guarantees for Ukraine, excluding direct military assistance. However, Ukraine would be required to cede the eastern Donbas region to Russia and accept Russia’s control over other contested regions. Additionally, the plan would limit Ukraine’s military forces to 600,000 members and bans Ukraine from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which provides security for its member nations.
Under the proposal, the U.S. would recognize Russia’s claims to certain Ukrainian territories; discuss the possibility of Russia rejoining the G8 (an intergovernmental organization comprising the world's largest developed economies: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.S., the U.K., Canada, and Russia); and the gradual lifting of sanctions that the U.S. and its allies have imposed on Russia.
Several days after the release of the peace plan, about which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially expressed significant concerns―particularly the territorial concessions and restrictions on the size of its military―it appeared that the Ukrainian government was amenable to the plan subject to working out certain details. However, the Russian government had not accepted the agreement by the end of November.
Economic Data (unless otherwise noted, data sourced to Bloomberg)
• According to Statistics Canada, consumer prices (as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)) rose 0.2% in October. Year-over-year consumer prices were up 2.2% as consumers paid more for groceries even though the rate of inflation slowed, while gasoline prices saw a notable year-over-year decline. Producer prices were higher in October, as the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) rose 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively. Year-over-year prices increased 6.0% and 5.8%, respectively, for the IPPI and RMPI. Input prices for metals and a number of food items, including beef and chicken, have sharply increased over the past 12 months, meanwhile, crude oil prices were weak. The Canadian labour market added 54,000 jobs in November with the bulk of the gains in part-time work and youthful (aged 15 to 24) workers. The unemployment rate declined 0.4% to 6.5%.
• The U.S. government shutdown has resulted in numerous delays to reporting and the following includes the most recently released, albeit stale, data. The consumer-price index (CPI) advanced 0.3% for September, marginally lower than the 0.4% rise in August. Gasoline prices rose 4.1% and comprised the bulk of the upturn in the index for the month. Conversely, costs for utility gas service and electricity declined 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively, in September. The CPI advanced 3.0% year-over-year in September—modestly higher than the 2.9% rise in August but slightly below expectations. Utility gas service and electricity costs increased by corresponding margins of 11.7% and 5.1% over the previous 12-month period, while gasoline prices were down 0.5%. Core inflation, as measured by the CPI for all items less food and energy, rose 3.0% year-over-year in September, slightly lower than the 3.1% upturn in August. Prices for used cars and trucks, medical services, and housing increased 5.1%, 3.9%, and 3.6%, respectively, yearover-year. The Commerce Department’s preliminary estimate of gross domestic product growth for the third quarter of this year, which was scheduled for release on October 30, was delayed indefinitely because of the government shutdown.
• According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), inflation in the U.K., as measured by the CPI, rose 0.4% in October, up from the flat reading in September. The CPI advanced at an annual rate of 3.6% for the month, modestly lower than the 3.8% year-over-year upturn in August. Prices for education, clothing and footwear, and housing and household services posted the largest gains in October, while communication and health costs declined. Education, alcohol and tobacco, and housing and household services prices climbed 7.6%, 5.9%, and 5.2%, respectively, over the previous 12-month period. Core inflation, as represented by the CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, rose 3.4% year-over-year in October, inching down from the 3.5% annual increase in September.3 The ONS also announced that U.K. GDP increased 0.1% for the three-month period ending September 30 (the most recent reporting period), marginally lower than the 0.2% rise for the three-month period ending August 31. Output in the services and construction sectors ticked up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, over the most recent three-month period, while the production sector saw a 0.5% decrease.
• The U.S. government shutdown has resulted in numerous delays to reporting and the following includes the most recently released, albeit stale, data. The consumer-price index (CPI) advanced 0.3% for September, marginally lower than the 0.4% rise in August. Gasoline prices rose 4.1% and comprised the bulk of the upturn in the index for the month. Conversely, costs for utility gas service and electricity declined 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively, in September. The CPI advanced 3.0% year-over-year in September—modestly higher than the 2.9% rise in August but slightly below expectations. Utility gas service and electricity costs increased by corresponding margins of 11.7% and 5.1% over the previous 12-month period, while gasoline prices were down 0.5%. Core inflation, as measured by the CPI for all items less food and energy, rose 3.0% year-over-year in September, slightly lower than the 3.1% upturn in August. Prices for used cars and trucks, medical services, and housing increased 5.1%, 3.9%, and 3.6%, respectively, yearover-year. The Commerce Department’s preliminary estimate of gross domestic product growth for the third quarter of this year, which was scheduled for release on October 30, was delayed indefinitely because of the government shutdown.
• According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), inflation in the U.K., as measured by the CPI, rose 0.4% in October, up from the flat reading in September. The CPI advanced at an annual rate of 3.6% for the month, modestly lower than the 3.8% year-over-year upturn in August. Prices for education, clothing and footwear, and housing and household services posted the largest gains in October, while communication and health costs declined. Education, alcohol and tobacco, and housing and household services prices climbed 7.6%, 5.9%, and 5.2%, respectively, over the previous 12-month period. Core inflation, as represented by the CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, rose 3.4% year-over-year in October, inching down from the 3.5% annual increase in September.3 The ONS also announced that U.K. GDP increased 0.1% for the three-month period ending September 30 (the most recent reporting period), marginally lower than the 0.2% rise for the three-month period ending August 31. Output in the services and construction sectors ticked up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, over the most recent three-month period, while the production sector saw a 0.5% decrease.
Index Data (November 2025)
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 3.86%.
• The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was up 0.27%.
• The S&P 500 Index, which measures the performance of U.S. equities, slid 0.26%.
• The MSCI ACWI (Net) Index, used to gauge global equity performance, declined 0.52%.
• The ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index, representing U.S. high-yield bond markets, returned 0.34% (currency hedged) and -0.01% (unhedged).
• The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX)—which tracks implied volatility in the S&P 500 Index and is often referred to as the “fear index”—ended November at 16.35, slightly lower than its October close of 17.44. It briefly spiked above 26 as investors digested numerous events and data releases including the end of the U.S. government shutdown, frothy valuations for U.S. technology stocks, and uncertainty over the Fed’s next meeting as employment continued to deteriorate while inflation remained elevated.
• The WTI Cushing crude oil price—a key indicator of movements in the oil market—declined from US$60.98 to US$58.55 a barrel during November.
• The Canadian dollar strengthened to C$1.39 per U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar was mostly weaker against the world’s other major currencies, ending November at US$1.16 versus the euro, US$1.33 against sterling, and at 156.05 yen.
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